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Buying into Panic

November 2008 to March 2009

"A year ago, I think you were taking a lot of risk and not being rewarded for it, Erin. I think now, as of late last week, into that panic selling, there were some tremendous opportunities. Not to say it's a bottom - know one knows, but I just think at those levels, you're getting an attractive yield; you're getting valuations you haven't seen in years and this is the upper echelon, the cream of the crop . . . . You want to buy quality when everything has gone down like it has."

"A month ago, we started increasing our financial equity weighting. And, again, [we are] sticking with the high quality. Why take the extra risk . . . . It usually pays to stick with quality and I think that will remain the case with tech, financials, or even corporate bonds like in October. . . . For 09, we're going to have a lot of ups and downs but I think 'play it' as far as buying into panic selling and taking some profits when things outperform."

"What we are doing now is a lot of the things we warned about a year or eighteen months ago are starting to look appealing just from a valuation standpoint. A year ago we were warning about Google and Apple at $700 and $200 respectively, or even the emerging markets which had an incredible run for five or six years. Google when it gets down under $300 or Apple in the $80-90 or lesser area; whenever you have that panic selling, it's a good time to start nibbling on quality. I think that's where you have to go with the quality. You have winners and losers and the market is starting to differentiate this. Apple had great earnings last week and they are taking advantage of their weaker competitors, and that's what you want. If they can survive now in a bad economic environment, they'll just be that much stronger when we get out of this."

Words of Warning

June 2007 to October 2008

"It's smart to start taking some profits and not chase stocks indiscriminately here."

"We went into 2008 avoiding emerging markets - China, Russia, and India - as well as the financials, and would rather concentrate on high quality global leaders with solid dividends."

"Unfortunately this failure to act will extend and broaden the ripple effects from this credit crisis, which means that investors should continue to maintain a very selective, cautious approach. Rising energy and food costs, the negative wealth effect and plunging consumer confidence all will provide difficult headwinds for equities."

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